Le Club Francais du Vin
Background
Found in 1973
Mainly French wine
Membership base in France Switzerland Germany
Typical customer segments: 60s
Mission: good wine with good quality
Characteristics: below radar screen (hire wine experts)
Current status
La Selection
-Company¡¯s recommendation
-Detail description label
La Cave
-Discount wine from last year (previous catalog)
-No detail description
Etiquette
-Every two months via a catalog
-Le Club 50,000 members
Current problem
Discrepancy between forecast and actual demand delphi method and sales pattern
Inventory management and uncertain demand
Ex) Jan 2004 case
Overage cost
-Warehouse cost
-discount
Underage cost
-Lost of customers(current and potential)
-No gross margin
Cost analysis
White
Red
Ave price
7.40
1¡¦(»ý·«)
1.50
2.45
3.75
4. Calculate white wine ´©ÀûÈ®·ü
5. Calculate ¡°actual ordering quantity¡±
|
Assume, A/F Ratio ~ N(0.87,0.40 ©÷)
A/F ratio
´©ÀûÈ®·ü
What if we assume normal distribution
Calculate white wine ´©ÀûÈ®·ü
by applying critical ratio
1.02
What if we assume normal distribution
Calculate red wine ´©ÀûÈ®·ü
by applying critical ratio
1.25
Actual distribution vs. normal distribution
Actual data based model performs better, but almost same as assuming-method
Consider cost & benefit
¡¡
actual
normal distribution
underage cost
21,830
7,298
overage cost
23,681
38,616
total cost ($)
45,511
45,914
Suggestion
Revenue management ( detail customer segmentation) -` higher efficiency
Diverse source of use
-Attract diverse potential customers from different sources like internet
La Cave
-Detail description to attract customers with more info
Ex) food matching with discounted wine
Thank you!